Friday & Saturday, Nov. 6-7, 2009
All selections (unless otherwise noted) are made in light of the conditions existing at the time of entry. Races taken off the turf, or modified in any way, should be passed.
SANTA ANITA PARK * Race 6 (47%) * Filly & Mare Turf
3-Rutherienne (8/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1
6-Midday (4/1)
Fair Odds: 3-1
8-Maram (15/1)
Fair Odds: 12-1
COMMENTS: When FOREVER TOGETHER won this event last year, she did so with steadily improving late speed rations (LSRs) and a great final tune-up in the First Lady at Keeneland. While the daughter of Belong to Me once again prepped in the First Lady this year, it was anything but great, garnering just a 99 Beyer speed figure and -7 LSR
(compared with a 104 Beyer and 0 LSR in 2008). RUTHERIENNE, on the other hand, appears to be improving. And although she’s been defeated by last year’s Filly & Mare Turf champ Forever Together more times than the Washington Generals lost to the Harlem Globetrotters, she had an excuse the last time they met (in the Grade 1 Diana on Aug. 1) and has posted back-to-back +7 LSRs since then. I think she’s got a shot at what should be a nice price. To get to the winner’s circle, Rutherienne will have to run down MIDDAY, a promising 3-year-old filly trained by Henry Cecil. In her latest start, Midday finished third in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp Racecourse on Oct. 4. Prior to that, however, the Juddmonte Farms’ runner annexed the Group 1 Nassau Stakes by 2 ¼ lengths over Rainbow View, who goes in the Ladies Classic and earned a 100 Beyer and 0 LSR in her North American debut in the EP Taylor at Woodbine on Oct. 17. Among the potential live longshots is MARAM, the winner of last year’s Juvenile Filly Turf.
BET(S): WIN on 3 (at odds of 8-1 or greater).
SANTA ANITA PARK * Race 9 (41%) * Classic
12-Quality Road (12/1)
Fair Odds: 6-1
2-Colonel John (12/1)
Fair Odds: 8-1
5-Twice Over (20/1)
Fair Odds: 15-1
COMMENTS: There are very few instances in horseracing when one knows that a given horse will be an underlay, but that is certainly the case with the great mare ZENYATTA, who makes her bow against the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. At her home track, with an unbeaten record on the line, Zenyatta is sure to receive more attention than a guy dressed in jeans and a T-shirt at a Star Trek convention. Thus, she’s an automatic toss-out for me — and the same goes for SUMMER BIRD, who is trying Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface for the first time, yet is a lowly 9-2 on the morning line. RIP VAN WINKLE? He’s a great horse, but he’s been having hoof problems (remember Big Brown?).
Hence, I’ll be looking for pari-mutuel love from QUALITY ROAD, COLONEL JOHN and TWICE OVER. Frankly, I still believe the former is one of the best racehorses in the country — bar none, while COLONEL JOHN has earned nearly a million dollars racing on “fake” dirt. As for TWICE OVER, although he appeared to tire a bit in the Champion Stakes last time, he still won that Group 1 affair and should get a stamina boost from the effort.
BET(S): WIN on 12 (at odds of 6-1 or greater) and/or WIN on 2 (at odds of 8-1 or greater) and/or WIN on 5 (at odds of 15-1 or greater).
DEREK’S FREE SELECTION STATS
Races (Selections): 103 (111)
Wins: 28
Rate: 27.2%
Return: $268.13
ROI: +20.78%
(All published selections through 10/31/2009)
